2026 HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

Memories of last season’s Hurricane Melissa which devastated parts of neighbouring Jamaica, are still fresh in Cayman as we look ahead to the 2026 hurricane season just over a month away.

The close proximity of Melissa relative to Cayman was a cause for concern as the storm developed rapidly on an initial track towards the local area. It then stalled, wobbled and then took a north-easterly turn, slamming into southwestern Jamaica as a formidable Category 5 hurricane, carving a path of historic destruction there and eastern parts of Cuba.

While the 2025 official predictions were for a 60% chance of an above-normal season, the outlook for 2026 is - at least for now - seemingly less worrisome.

The first pre-season prediction from Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones lab indicates slightly below-average activity for 2026. The general outlook is for fewer storms than usual, which researchers attribute to climate conditions being less favourable this year.

The first projection was issued last week with a follow-up due in May by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) before the start of the season, which runs from June 1st to November 30th.

NAMES AND NUMBERS

The US National Hurricane Centre(NHC) recently released a 21-name list of storm names for 2026.

They are: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred.

Early indications are that from this list, around 12 of those names could be assigned to storm systems, with six becoming hurricanes, of which two could reach Category 3 with winds over 111 mph.

By comparison, the 2025 hurricane season was close to the historical average in the number of storms, but three Category 5 hurricanes developed, just one short of the record of four in a year.

According to one analysis, there’s a 35 per cent chance of one storm making landfall in the Caribbean. But it was pointed out that “while those figures may seem low, researchers note that they don’t account for less powerful storms, which can still be dangerous.”

PREPAREDNESS ADVICE

Delián Colón-Burgos, who co-authored the Colorado State University forecast, told CBS News. “Putting this out there in April gets people thinking about what’s coming in the next couple of months.”

And Rob Shackelford, a meteorologist and climate scientist at weather.com, stresses, “It only takes one powerful landfall to call the season active. Even if it is quieter, it is still important to pay attention to the tropics.”

It’s an adage that echoes a well-established reminder by Cayman’s John Tibbets, Chief Meteorologist with Cayman’s National Weather Service(NWS): “It only takes one.”

Meanwhile Hazard Management Cayman Islands (HMCI), the lead agency responsible for the national comprehensive disaster management programme maintains this important reminder of the vulnerability of Cayman to severe weather systems.

“As the Cayman Islands are low-lying (particularly Grand Cayman and Little Cayman), small and narrow, they are vulnerable to storm surge and to dangerous wave action. In any case, severe flooding from rain, waves and/or surges can affect any area of the islands, depending on the strength of the particular storm, the path it is travelling, and how close its centre comes to land.”