AN UNPLANNED BY-ELECTION THAT COULD SHAPE THE NEXT UK GOVERNMENT

Politics in the United Kingdom has been thrown into a tailspin in the aftermath of the recent local council and mayoral elections earlier this month.

The most consequential impact is within the ruling Labour Party, where displeasure with its performance is seen as a troubling omen for it in the next general election. The next election must be called by August 2029, although the Prime Minister may choose to hold it earlier.

The question is: which Prime Minister?

The incumbent Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, is now fighting to keep his job due to infighting in his party after the May 7th local and mayoral elections.

What is widely regarded as a dismal performance by the left-leaning Labour Party in the local government/council elections saw a surge in seats for the right-wing Reform Party, although mainly at the expense of the centre-right Conservatives.

‘We have lost brilliant Labour representatives across the country…and that hurts, and it should hurt, and I take responsibility,” the Prime Minister said.

Sir Keir Starmer had led the Labour Party to a resounding victory in the 2024 general election over the Conservatives after that party’s turbulent 14-year run in power, marked by a revolving door of prime ministers - five just between 2010 and 2024, and six different political leaders.

UNEASY LIES THE HEAD

But now, in true Shakespearean terms, ‘uneasy lies the head’, as former close allies and opponents of Prime Minister Starmer have thrown their hats into an abruptly opened ring to vie for his job.

First out of the gate as the Labour Party licked its wounds from the hammering it received in the local elections, was the Prime Minister’s own former Health Secretary, Wes Streeting. He has made clear his displeasure with Mr Starmer’s leadership and the state of the government.

“I left the government because we are in the fight of our lives against nationalism, and it is a fight that we are currently losing,” Streeting said in a resignation address in the British Parliament/House of Commons last week. “Unless we change course, we risk handing the keys of No. 10 to Reform, and I do not want that on our consciences.”

Mr Streeting has declared his intention to challenge Mr for the Labour leadership.

Of more immediate concern to Prime Minister Starmer might be his long-known stalking horse, Andy Burnham, the current mayor of the northern city of Manchester. Mr Burnham, a former MP and Minister of Health in a previous Labour government, did not contest the 2024 election, choosing instead to focus on his mayoralty in Manchester.

However, with the Labour government under pressure, especially from a series of policy U-turns and questions about the Prime Minister’s judgment, Mr Burnham’s possible return has added to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the Starmer government. A previous attempt by Mr Burnham to return to parliament, ostensibly to eventually mount a leadership challenge to Mr Starmer was blocked from running following an internal Labour Party selection process.

Now though, all of that has changed.

MAKERFIELD MATTERS

A sitting Labour MP last week gave up his seat, offering Mr Burnham the opportunity to compete for a return to Parliament. In a major turnaround, the internal Labour Party selection process that had previously prevented the Manchester mayor from running last week gave him the all-clear.

Accepting the nomination, Mr Burnham stated: “I know my own party needs to change. We need to be better than we have been. A vote for me in this by-election is a vote to change Labour.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to carry on as leader, saying he will not just walk away from Downing Street.

Interestingly, he has also said he will campaign for his perceived political nemesis, Andy Burnham, in the now vacant seat of Makerfield in northern England. “I’ve said to the whole Labour movement that I want everybody to be involved in the campaign, whatever other discussions are going on, it’s really important – that’s a straight fight between Labour and Reform.”

For Mr Burnham, it’s the starting point on his path back to Parliament - and possibly leading to the doors of the Prime Minister’s Office at Number 10 Downing Street in London.

The Makerfield by-election will be held on June 18th.

The question is: Will Makerfield mark the make-or-break moment for both Mr Starmer and Mr Burnham?

By Michael L. Jarvis London UK