‘WEATHER’ OR NOT, CAYMAN PREPARES FOR THE HURRICANE SEASON

The drills have been completed, the multi-agency preparedness training was successfully executed, and residents and businesses have been advised to ensure their hurricane season preparedness plans are in order; from documentation to evacuation plans. Based on those, a general observation suggests that Cayman is well prepared for the 2026 Hurricane Season, which starts in a few days on June 1st and runs through November 30th.

The latest update from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season could be less active than normal, largely due to a developing El Niño in the Pacific. El Niño is a climate pattern that involves warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

As explained by NOAA, during normal Pacific Ocean conditions, trade winds blow west along the equator and carry warm water from South America to Asia. El Niño and La Niña are two opposing climate patterns that disrupt these conditions. “These episodes usually last nine to twelve months, but sometimes persist for years. El Niño and La Niña events occur every two to seven years, though not on a set schedule. Generally, El Niño happens more often than La Niña.”

That’s the science. But what does it mean for Cayman and the rest of the Caribbean region?

OUTLOOK UPDATED

In a post on his personal website a few days ago, forecaster Dale Destin, Director of the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services(ABMS), said, “The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast indicates a slight downward adjustment in expected activity; however, the season is now forecast to be near to above normal overall and capable of producing dangerous hurricanes.”

In line with the updated projections from the US NOAA, Destin also noted that the primary reason for the reduction in forecast activity is the increasing likelihood of El Niño developing and persisting for the whole hurricane season.

“Recent global model guidance suggests that a moderate to potentially strong (super) El Niño could emerge by late summer or autumn, during the traditional peak period of the hurricane season. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity.

According to the updated NOAA forecast for the 2026 season issued earlier this month, there is a 55% chance of a below-average season, with between eight and 14 named storms of tropical storm strength or above. It says that this would include three to six hurricanes, between one and three of which are expected to be major hurricanes - category three or stronger.

CAYMAN UPGRADES MONITORING

Meanwhile, here in Cayman, the state of preparedness was recently stepped up another level with the upgraded National Weather Service website going live with real-time data and expanded marine tools.

The CINWS says the additional features will support delivering faster access to real-time weather data and improved severe weather warnings across the Islands.

“The upgraded platform introduces several key enhancements, including a dedicated warnings page which provides clear explanations of alert levels to assist the public understand what each warning means and how to respond.” Detailed station data from across the Islands also supports more localised, real-time insights for individual planning and preparedness,” it said.

Further enhancements are planned in the coming months, including expanded marine data to better support maritime users and coastal planning.

Director General of the Cayman Islands National Weather Service, John Tibbetts, said the upgraded platform marks a significant step forward in their mission to keep the public safe and informed. “This website transforms how we share critical weather information with the public. Improved access to real-time data, clearer warnings and soon, richer marine forecasting will sharpen our collective ability to prepare, plan and build resilience across the Cayman Islands.”

“Weather does not wait, and our communities should not have to either,” said Premier Honourable André Ebanks. “This upgraded platform is a direct investment in the safety and resilience of every person across the Cayman Islands. When severe weather threatens, our residents, businesses and mariners will have faster access to the information they need to make the right decisions. That is what a resilient Cayman looks like in practice.”

So, from all indications, ‘weather’ or not, Cayman seems prepared.

However, each year we are reminded of the sage words of CINWS Director John Tibbetts in a Caymanian Times ‘Cayman Conversations’ interview: “It only takes one.”

Be prepared. Stay safe.