BEIJING, WASHINGTON, OR BOTH? A PRESSING QUESTION IN CARIBBEAN ELECTIONS

Two upcoming Caribbean elections are seeing China’s geopolitical and commercial investments in the area, taking the front stage to an extent not quite seen before.

Voters in Antigua and Barbuda go to the polls on April 30th, with their counterparts in the Bahamas scheduled to cast their ballots on May 12th.

In Antigua and Barbuda, the ruling Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party(ABLP) under Prime Minister Gaston Browne, which has called the elections two years early, is aiming for a third consecutive term under his leadership. The governing party says it’s aiming to repeat its 2018 landslide victory when it won 15 of the 17 seats. In the last election in 2023 that dropped to nine. The ABLP’s main contender is the United Progressive Party (UPP). Another Party, the Democratic National Alliance, which failed to win a seat in 2023, has dropped out of the 2026 race.

Meanwhile, in the Bahamas, which goes to the polls seven months ahead of the October due date, Prime Minister Philip Davis is aiming to take his Progressive Liberal Party(PLP) to a second term after unseating the Free National Movement(FNM) in 2021. The other party contesting the polls there is the smaller Coalition of Independents.

In both elections, economic management and cost-of-living concerns are key issues. But these are now competing for attention with the growing Chinese presence versus traditional alignment with the United States. In Antigua and Barbuda, China’s reported investments in public and private infrastructure have been a dominating feature across the country’s landscape. Over the past two decades, Chinese investment in Antigua and Barbuda has been estimated at around $US1 billion. This is seen in major airport and harbour projects, special economic zones, housing, and tourism projects. These investments largely come under China’s global Belt and Road Initiative, which has also been expanding across the Caribbean.

While the ruling ABLP of Prime Minister Gaston Browne has embraced China, at the time, it stresses how important it sees maintaining close ties with the US. Recently however, some tensions have started to show on that front. They are especially noticeable over the US Trump administration’s stance in the region on several fronts. These include clamping down on narco-trafficking via the Caribbean Sea, the removal of then-Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro (currently on trial in New York), and mounting US pressure on Cuba, a close ally of many Caribbean states. Tightened US immigration policies have also placed restrictive visa requirements on several countries, including Antigua and Barbuda.

Likewise, in the Bahamas, the dual ties with the United States and China are also playing out in the run-up to their elections next month.

Significant Chinese investments, alongside a longstanding American presence in the Bahamas’ economy, society, and diplomatic priorities, are also playing a noticeable role in the run-up to the May 12th elections there.

Strong diplomatic overtures have been underway by both the US and Chinese governments to the individual states and the broader CARICOM grouping. While a background but noticeable issue in other recent regional elections - especially Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago and Barbados - the balancing act by Caribbean states between their traditional ties to the United States, now under the Trump administration, and with mainland China is expected to be a growing feature in the future.

Another strand in the region’s delicate geopolitical high-wire act is the relationship with Taiwan (Republic of China). St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, and St Vincent and the Grenadines, Belize and Haiti are among 15 states worldwide that officially recognise Taiwan.

Antigua and Barbuda and the Bahamas, along with the remaining Caricom member states maintain formal diplomatic ties with mainland China(People’s Republic of China).