CUBA ON THE RADAR

Tensions between the Trump administration and the Cuban government, already a rumbling cauldron of distrust, are now at risk of boiling over. Just a few days ago, Secretary of State Rubio described the communist-ruled island, 90 miles off the Florida coast, as posing a "national security threat" to the US.

During an emergency meeting of the Trump cabinet last week, Cuban-American Mr Rubio said: “Cuba is in a lot of trouble because, unfortunately for them, it’s run by a bunch of incompetent communists. Being a communist is bad; being an incompetent communist is like the worst.”

In a clear sign of the Trump administration ratcheting up the pressure, it has slapped a federal indictment on former Cuban president Raúl Castro, the brother of the late Cuban revolutionary leader Fidel Castro. The criminal charges relate to the shooting down in 1996 of a civilian-registered aircraft operated by a Miami-based exile group, Brothers to the Rescue. The Cuban government insists that it was defending its territory from a foreign attack, but the US says otherwise.

Cuba’s president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, dismissed the indictment as a US political gimmick which he said was intended to justify what he called “the folly of a military aggression against Cuba”.

Meanwhile, Cuba’s Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Josefina Vidal Ferreiro has doubled down on that, saying any American military action against the country could lead to "thousands of deaths."

In an interview with the US PBS NewsHour, she said Cuba doesn’t seek conflict with America and hopes it can be avoided. However, likening it to a defence of Cuba’s independence, the Cuban Foreign Minister stated: “The same feeling you have for your independence, Cubans have for our independence. And we are determined to defend it because we cherish our independence."

What had recently appeared as overtures by the US to tone down the rhetoric while still demanding that the Cuban government make significant changes to its governance have since been overshadowed by increasingly bellicose remarks from both sides.

“FRIENDLY TAKEOVER”

President Trump has spoken of what he described as “a friendly takeover” of Cuba if the government does not yield to its demands. Secretary of State Rubio says the US is open to talks but has indicated that the clock is ticking, while saying that the preference is “a negotiated agreement that’s peaceful. That’s always our preference.” However, he added, that seems unlikely at present. “The likelihood of that happening, given who we’re dealing with right now, is not high.”

The US, which has further tightened its economic squeeze on Cuba with a crippling oil embargo and other sanctions, had offered Cuba a humanitarian aid shipment coordinated via the Roman Catholic church. After some initial hesitation and questioning of Washington's motives, the Cuban government was reported to have given the all-clear for the shipment to land.

Some analysts have viewed this move as a ‘hearts and minds’ outreach by the US directly to the Cuban people who have had to bear the brunt of suffering due to the shortage of essential supplies in the country, including medical supplies.

There is mounting speculation that the events in Venezuela, where US forces seized the then-leader, Nicolas Maduro who is now on trial in the United States on drug trafficking and other charges, could be replicated in Cuba.

In a statement to the United Nations Security Council, the Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla said: “A military aggression would provoke a bloodbath…Thousands of Cubans would die defending their country.”

CARROT AND STICK

With the stick of sanctions and threats of a takeover being ramped up against Cuba while the carrot of humanitarian aid and direct appeals to the Cuban people that a US involvement is in their best interest, the coming period remains clouded in uncertainty.

But the US strategy is clear, as underscored in a statement by Secretary of State Rubio, issued to mark Cuba’s Independence Day on May 20th.

In a video address delivered ​in Spanish, he told his Cuban audience: "The real reason you don't have electricity, fuel, or food is that those who control your country have plundered billions of dollars, but nothing has been used to help the people. We in the U.S. are offering to help you not only alleviate the current crisis, but also to build a better future."

Another buildup of US military assets in the region, reportedly for maritime exercises with selected Latin American forces, is also seen as contributing to growing tensions and uncertainty.

Meanwhile, with the prospects of some development on the horizon, one of the concerns for neighbouring countries, including Cayman, is the likelihood of a Cuban refugee crisis. Authorities in the Cayman Islands have been assessing the situation since earlier this year, when the matter came up during a meeting of the Parliamentary Public Accounts Committee. Since then, further discussions have focused on putting contingency plans in place.