CAYMAN’S POPULATION COULD REACH 95,000 BY 2027

By Staff Writer

Within the very comprehensive Compendium of Statistics 2024 just published by the Economics and Statistics Office, is a set of forward-looking figures that every Caymanian - from politicians to the proverbial ‘public in general’ - should pay attention to.

These cover projections for population growth, the unemployment rate, real gross domestic product (the value of goods and services produced locally), and the consumer price index (inflation, which tracks the cost of living).

The Compendium of Statistics 2024 is a rearview look at just about every aspect of Cayman’s socio-economic reality over the past year. However, the forward-looking observations by the ESO, which also cover the current closing year, provide a valuable insight into what could lie ahead. It’s a vital exercise in providing a professional analysis of what the government and the wider society should prepare for.

Last updated in July this year (2025), the data projections look at what’s likely ahead within the period of the budget cycle up to 2028, and even up to 2029 in one instance. These are vital projections based on the metrics of current trends from which policy decisions are formulated.

POPULATION

According to the ESO, the country’s 2024 population estimate was 88,833, reflecting a growth rate of 4.8 per cent (4,095 persons) over the 2023 figure of 84,738.

It puts the 2025 population (last updated in July 2025) at 91,166, which is a 2.5 per cent increase on 2024.

The ESO further projects the population to increase by two per cent each year between 2025 and 2029. It projects a population growth to 95,000 by 2027 (95,066) based on current trends. As of July 2025, the ESO tabulated the population at 91,116, rising to 93,273 in 2026 and reaching 95,066 by 2027. That’s a two and a third(2.33%) per cent rise between 2025 and 2026, a further two per cent (1.9%) between 2026 and 2027, or an overall four and a quarter (4.25%) per cent rise between 2025 and 2027.

UNEMPLOYMENT

The unemployment rate is forecast to remain under 3.0 per cent - one of the lowest, if not the lowest, in the region. According to the projections, 2028 is the only year in the period between 2025 and 2029 when the unemployment rate is expected to reach 3.0 per cent. The current and projected unemployment rates for Cayman between 2025 and 2029 (updated October 2025) show the following pattern: 2025 at 2.8 per cent, 2026 an uptick to 2.9 per cent, 2027 at 2.7 per cent, 2028 peaking at 3.0 per cent, and 2029 back down to 2.7 per cent.

Across the English-speaking Caribbean, data from the World Bank updated to 2024 show unemployment rates between 4.9 per cent(Jamaica) and 18 per cent (St Vincent and the Grenadines). Jamaica recently reported statistics showing a 3.6 per cent unemployment rate in July 2024, falling to  3.3 per cent in July 2025. But that is quite likely to change with the impact of October’s Hurricane Melissa.

GDP

The value of goods and services in the Cayman Islands is forecast to grow year-on-year between this year and 2029, according to the ESO.

Measuring the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shows a 2.6 per cent growth in 2025 at a value of KYD$5.3 billion (2025: $5341.3 million). That rate of growth is, however, expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2026 at $5.5 billion (2026: $5458.4 million).

The ESO’s outlook has Cayman’s GDP rate picking up again in 2027, rising 2.5 per cent to $5.5 billion (2027: 5595.5 million). By 2028, that is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent with the economic output reaching $5.7 billion. Another uptick of  2.3 per cent is forecast for 2029, by which time the GDP of the Cayman Islands is expected to reach $5.8 billion ($5844.3 million), growing by 2.3 per cent.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX-INFLATION

The most recent update of the consumer price index inflation, with its implications for the cost of living, was in November this year.

At that time the rate was 1.9 per cent. However, with import-dependent Cayman very vulnerable and exposed to external trade shocks, consumers should brace for a 2.6 per cent jump in the consumer price index next year, 2026. At present, that’s the highest year-on-year increase forecast in the cost of living up to 2029. While prices will continue to rise, the rate of increase is expected to slow between 2027 and 2029. In 2027 it’s forecast to rise to 2.3 per cent, and 2.2 per cent in both 2028 and 2029.